American football is the most popular sport in the U.S., and it’s a dream for people who like to bet. But the question that keeps trending, however, is how do you bet on NFL games?
Bettors on this side of the Atlantic are becoming more and more interested in the NFL. This is partly because regular season games are now being played on our shores, but it’s also because there are so many stats available and the betting markets are easy to understand and comes with a good value. If you like getting a good deal when you bet on sports and playing on a level playing field, you should bet on nfl games online after reading our guide.
Spreads and Handicaps
There are three main types of bets you can make on NFL games: the moneyline, the total points, and the handicap (spread) market.
The moneyline is a simple way to bet on who will win the game.
In the points total market, you bet on whether the game will have more or fewer points than a certain number.
On the handicap market, one team is given a point advantage so that the odds for both teams are close to even. This is where most NFL betting takes place.
The handicap market is also called the “point spread,” and both professional bettors and the mass media use it to figure out how likely it is that both teams will win. The handicap betting lines make up for the fact that each NFL team is different in how good they are.
This gives punters two benefits: first, they can bet close to 2.0 on either side in matches that can be one-sided, and second, oddsmakers can share their thoughts on the market. This is important because it means they can and will make mistakes, which is where you can make money.
As a guide, we are going to use the third week of the 2021–22 NFL season to show how to bet on a spread market.
Here, the betting line is set at 3, and the New York Giants are favored because their number has a minus sign next to it. The market prediction is that the Giants are three points superior to the Falcons, so handicap bets give the Giants a three-point advantage.
If you bet on the Giants to win by more than 3 points, you win. Alternatively, if you also have a bet on the Atlanta Falcons +3.0 pays out if they win or lose by no more than two points.
Because the handicap line wasn’t crossed, bets on both sides of the handicap will be refunded if the Giants win by three points or more. You’ll often see handicap lines with a .5 at the end. These are very popular because they remove the chance of a tie and guarantee that one side will beat the handicap line.
Beating the Odds
When you bet on the odds or spread lines, you need to think about the following:
- It’s important to figure out how many points each team is likely to score in a game. A lot of things, like the weather, injuries, playing at home, etc., can change how many points are predicted. It’s up to you to look at all of these factors and the handicap lines to figure out who you think will cover their line.
- It’s not necessary to bet on every game. Pick and choose. You might not be able to guess every NFL game, but there will probably be a few games each week where you know with a better than 53% chance that one team will cover the handicap line.
- Gamble early. One of the best ways to use the spread to your advantage is to bet as soon as the handicap lines for the games come out. In the days leading up to an NFL game, the handicap lines will change often. For example, if the Giants were -3.0 at 1.91 a week before the game, they could be -6.0 at 1.91 a few hours before kickoff.
Don’t Listen to the Hypes
The main job of the media is to build up NFL games and make a buzz that brings in viewers. Don’t let the noise made by outlets trying to sell a story about a future game fool you. A good NFL bettor will be able to ignore all the noise in the media about a game and use the huge amount of data that is available to find good bets.
If you want to bet on the NFL, you should look at the numbers and past information that is available. When looking at how players match up with other teams, Pro Football Reference is a gold mine of information. Most NFL players and teams are consistent, and at the end of the season, the overall best teams are often the ones fighting for the top prize.
One way to bet on the NFL is to bet against the crowd. “Fade” is short for “bet against.” If a lot of people want a certain team to win a game, they will bet on that team so much that the oddsmakers will change the odds so that more money is put on the other team.
What the oddsmakers are trying to do is make the popular choice less appealing, and less valuable, and move it away from the more likely chance of that team beating the spread. This is good news for people who bet, though, and smart bettors will watch how the lines change and bet on the team they like when the line is at its highest and there is the most value.